Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AS 782 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day AS 782 BOI 06:00 → PDX 06:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3148 BOI 20:23 → PDX 20:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 782 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 06:00	PDX 06:27	6%	1%	0.7%	94%
AS 1314 Alaska	BOI 09:11	PDX 09:38	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 381 Alaska	BOI 13:31	PDX 14:01	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 229 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 17:08	PDX 17:10	17%	4%	0.7%	86%
OO 3148 SkyWest	BOI 20:23	PDX 20:58	18%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON