Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4794 Republic	BOS 10:24	ILM 12:50	11%	4%	3.4%	no record
B6 1293 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:35	ILM 13:53	17%	6%	1.8%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	8h 13m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:24 → ILM 16:52DL 1292	7h 47m	99%	80%
American Details →	BOS 08:10 → CLT 10:37AA 1348	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 12:57 → ILM 14:05AA 1531	5h 55m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	7h 46m	96%	77%
American Details →	BOS 09:34 → DCA 11:29AA 3240	2h 14m Washington	DCA 13:43 → ILM 15:22AA 5313 · flown by PSA	5h 48m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → LGA 09:25DL 5735 · flown by Republic	2h 07m New York	LGA 11:32 → ILM 13:24DL 5186 · flown by Endeavor	5h 24m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:00 → LGA 11:15DL 5744 · flown by Republic	3h 32m New York	LGA 14:47 → ILM 16:33DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	6h 33m	99%	66%
United Details →	BOS 15:57 → EWR 17:37UA 1647	3h 39m Newark	EWR 21:16 → ILM 23:18UA 4511 · flown by GoJet	7h 21m	96%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 17:00 → LGA 18:29DL 5721 · flown by Republic	1h 22m New York	LGA 19:51 → ILM 21:37DL 5204 · flown by Endeavor	4h 37m	64%	31%
United Details →	BOS 18:56 → EWR 20:26UA 1693	50m Newark	EWR 21:16 → ILM 23:18UA 4511 · flown by GoJet	4h 22m	38%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON