Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5594 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:49	MEM 00:23	31%	13%	3.1%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:44 → MEM 09:50DL 1627	5h 20m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	6h 02m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 33m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:13DL 733	7h 13m	99%	79%
American Details →	BOS 06:51 → CLT 09:16AA 2715	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 10:39 → MEM 11:23AA 1354	5h 32m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:59DL 2939	8h 04m	99%	77%
American Details →	BOS 08:10 → CLT 10:37AA 1348	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 13:14 → MEM 14:09AA 1790	6h 59m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	7h 54m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:59DL 2939	5h 29m	67%	52%
United Details →	BOS 18:56 → EWR 20:26UA 1693	1h 33m Newark	EWR 21:59 → MEM 00:10 +1UA 3563 · flown by Republic	6h 14m	71%	44%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:00 → LGA 18:29DL 5721 · flown by Republic	1h 21m New York	LGA 19:50 → MEM 21:56DL 5606 · flown by Republic	5h 56m	63%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON