Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2706 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 2706 BOS 07:00 → TPA 10:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 591 BOS 20:23 → TPA 00:03 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:00	TPA 10:18	7%	3%	0.9%	91%
B6 691 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:00	TPA 10:30	12%	4%	1.0%	84%
B6 791 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:59	TPA 15:41	26%	9%	1.2%	80%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:40	TPA 19:13	26%	13%	1.1%	73%
DL 2234 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:46	TPA 22:10	34%	17%	1.2%	65%
B6 591 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:23	TPA 00:03	43%	21%	2.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON