tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048 6h 30m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832 7h 53m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 7h 59m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 7h 54m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:10 → CLT 10:37AA 1348 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 11:38 → VPS 12:29AA 5165 · flown by PSA 5h 19m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:04DL 2170 7h 59m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803 6h 46m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:14 → DFW 08:36AA 2527 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:44 → VPS 11:49AA 3089 7h 35m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 57m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 5h 19m 74% 62%
DeltaDetails → BOS 19:10 → ATL 22:24DL 973 51m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 5h 19m 59% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON