Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 2784 at 10:39, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2784 Southwest	BUF 10:39	BNA 11:53	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	48m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682	3h 42m	86%	77%
United Details →	BUF 07:06 → ORD 08:03UA 543	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 11:11 → BNA 13:00UA 2414	6h 54m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	BUF 15:53 → ATL 18:05DL 2266	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → BNA 20:35DL 3002	5h 42m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:51 → JFK 08:15DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor	3h 22m New York	JFK 11:37 → BNA 13:05DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor	7h 14m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:41 → BNA 17:51DL 758	6h 35m	100%	71%
American Details →	BUF 08:03 → ORD 08:57AA 1195	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 11:07 → BNA 12:50AA 2362	5h 47m	95%	71%
American Details →	BUF 11:49 → CLT 13:49AA 1203	1h 25m Charlotte	CLT 15:14 → BNA 15:47AA 2360	4h 58m	92%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUF 19:57 → CLT 21:59AA 1486	53m Charlotte	CLT 22:52 → BNA 23:23AA 1644	4h 26m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON