tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 19:21, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1749 Delta BUF 19:21 MSP 20:45 15% 9% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 30m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 1h 18m Detroit DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 4h 25m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 18:59 → ATL 21:12DL 2050 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 6h 40m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:51 → JFK 08:15DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 3h 47m New York JFK 12:02 → MSP 14:03DL 2414 8h 12m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 7h 02m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:53 → ATL 18:05DL 2266 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 6h 45m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:06 → ORD 08:03UA 543 2h 47m Chicago ORD 10:50 → MSP 12:30UA 215 6h 24m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:05 → MSP 14:34AA 1668 8h 33m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:06 → ORD 08:03UA 543 47m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 4h 30m 70% 55%
UnitedDetails → BUF 17:37 → ORD 18:33UA 2747 1h 24m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 5h 04m 68% 42%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:44 → JFK 17:08DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m New York JFK 18:16 → MSP 20:13DL 2245 5h 29m 75% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON