Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: PT 6131 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day PT 6131 BUF 07:00 → PHL 08:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5809 BUF 17:17 → PHL 18:51 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6131 Piedmont	BUF 07:00	PHL 08:34	9%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 5868 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BUF 10:50	PHL 12:20	13%	6%	1.4%	80%
PT 5800 Piedmont	BUF 13:22	PHL 14:56	18%	9%	1.4%	no record
PT 5870 Piedmont	BUF 19:33	PHL 21:07	24%	10%	1.9%	no record
PT 5809 Piedmont	BUF 17:17	PHL 18:51	24%	11%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON