tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4447 at 06:59, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4447 Southwest BUR 06:59 BNA 12:56 9% 2% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 8h 30m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 18:34 → BNA 00:51 +1UA 1291 9h 06m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 59m Portland PDX 11:26 → BNA 17:39AS 1376 8h 30m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 11:08 → SEA 13:36AS 1388 3h 55m Seattle SEA 17:31 → BNA 23:45AS 450 10h 37m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 56m San Francisco SFO 11:26 → BNA 17:40UA 499 8h 38m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:37 → DFW 17:57AA 1208 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:21 → BNA 23:20AA 1500 8h 43m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:28 → BNA 15:24AA 1084 6h 23m 91% 62%
UnitedDetails → BUR 11:39 → SFO 13:04UA 2386 1h 23m San Francisco SFO 14:27 → BNA 20:45UA 433 7h 06m 81% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON