Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 857 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 857 BUR 08:22 → DEN 11:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2686 BUR 14:24 → DEN 17:42 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 857 Southwest	BUR 08:22	DEN 11:44	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1899 United	BUR 09:03	DEN 12:46	14%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1852 Southwest	BUR 09:20	DEN 12:38	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2187 United Flight history →	BUR 12:48	DEN 16:16	21%	10%	0.6%	80%
WN 859 Southwest	BUR 12:59	DEN 16:17	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2686 Southwest	BUR 14:24	DEN 17:42	30%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON