tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1233 at 16:14, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1233 Southwest BUR 16:14 RNO 17:40 18% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 09m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 53m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 39m San Francisco SFO 18:52 → RNO 20:09UA 581 6h 24m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUR 11:39 → SFO 13:04UA 2386 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 16:27 → RNO 17:40UA 2690 6h 01m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 06m San Francisco SFO 10:36 → RNO 11:44UA 1845 4h 42m 96% 70%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:08 → SEA 09:47AS 491 2h 35m Seattle SEA 12:22 → RNO 14:05AS 601 6h 57m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 35m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 5h 16m 92% 67%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 11:08 → SEA 13:36AS 1388 3h 31m Seattle SEA 17:07 → RNO 18:54AS 598 7h 46m 94% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 16:27 → RNO 17:40UA 2690 3h 55m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON