Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 488 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 488 BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 1453 BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SFO 08:30	17%	7%	1.2%	80%
WN 914 Southwest	BUR 12:31	SFO 13:57	25%	10%	1.9%	no record
WN 1313 Southwest	BUR 16:44	SFO 18:10	26%	10%	2.0%	no record
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 11:39	SFO 13:04	28%	12%	1.0%	52%
UA 520 United	BUR 09:52	SFO 11:22	28%	13%	1.2%	no record
WN 1146 Southwest	BUR 08:19	SFO 09:45	29%	9%	2.1%	no record
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:08	SFO 17:37	30%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	31%	13%	1.0%	41%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	34%	13%	1.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON