Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 992 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 992 BWI 06:11 → DEN 08:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1406 BWI 16:51 → DEN 18:52 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 992 Southwest	BWI 06:11	DEN 08:08	10%	1%	0.9%	no record
UA 2412 United Flight history →	BWI 08:54	DEN 10:53	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 993 Southwest	BWI 07:57	DEN 09:58	14%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4010 Southwest	BWI 21:59	DEN 23:57	24%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 994 Southwest	BWI 11:04	DEN 12:49	25%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2012 United Flight history →	BWI 16:23	DEN 18:18	31%	7%	0.8%	79%
WN 552 Southwest	BWI 18:21	DEN 20:22	39%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 1406 Southwest	BWI 16:51	DEN 18:52	40%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON