Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1974 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1974 BWI 06:18 → LAX 08:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4971 BWI 14:39 → LAX 16:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1974 Southwest	BWI 06:18	LAX 08:49	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:50	LAX 10:44	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 17:39	LAX 20:30	19%	9%	0.7%	66%
WN 4971 Southwest	BWI 14:39	LAX 16:50	27%	6%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 12m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:42 → SLC 10:23DL 1176	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 45m	92%	76%
American Details →	BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995	7h 41m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON