Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1118 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1118 BWI 06:44 → PVD 08:07 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4560 BWI 22:24 → PVD 23:47 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1118 Southwest	BWI 06:44	PVD 08:07	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1119 Southwest	BWI 10:53	PVD 12:31	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3260 Southwest	BWI 11:34	PVD 12:57	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1121 Southwest	BWI 14:29	PVD 15:51	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2967 Southwest	BWI 19:24	PVD 20:47	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
WN 4560 Southwest	BWI 22:24	PVD 23:47	25%	6%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON