Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2289 BWI 08:11 → RSW 11:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4974 BWI 17:34 → RSW 20:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2289 Southwest	BWI 08:11	RSW 11:00	15%	2%	2.2%	no record
WN 203 Southwest	BWI 13:35	RSW 16:27	18%	6%	1.5%	no record
WN 836 Southwest	BWI 20:19	RSW 23:10	22%	8%	2.8%	no record
WN 4974 Southwest	BWI 17:34	RSW 20:25	24%	9%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON