Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1694 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1694 BWI 08:51 → SAT 11:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1153 BWI 20:24 → SAT 23:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1694 Southwest	BWI 08:51	SAT 11:39	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1152 Southwest	BWI 13:54	SAT 16:42	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1153 Southwest	BWI 20:24	SAT 23:14	26%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676	5h 03m	87%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	5h 37m	96%	76%
United Details →	BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898	1h 15m Houston	IAH 09:31 → SAT 10:41UA 1371	5h 41m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON