Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1183 Southwest	BWI 11:44	VPS 13:19	11%	2%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	6h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832	5h 20m	98%	84%
American Details →	BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670	3h 45m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → VPS 12:29AA 5165 · flown by PSA	7h 14m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 18:20 → ATL 20:34DL 1267	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 09m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:04DL 2170	5h 12m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	5h 08m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	4h 49m	87%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON