Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 3038 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3038 CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3193 CAE 15:51 → ATL 16:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3038 Delta Flight history →	CAE 05:35	ATL 06:40	6%	3%	0.8%	95%
DL 3061 Delta Flight history →	CAE 06:59	ATL 08:13	8%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	CAE 11:55	ATL 13:11	8%	4%	0.8%	91%
9E 5202 Endeavor	CAE 10:01	ATL 11:19	9%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	CAE 14:25	ATL 15:45	14%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	CAE 17:57	ATL 19:13	17%	7%	0.8%	78%
DL 2193 Delta Flight history →	CAE 19:24	ATL 20:40	18%	5%	0.8%	81%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	CAE 15:51	ATL 16:59	19%	5%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON