Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: PT 5873 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day PT 5873 CAE 07:14 → PHL 09:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5862 CAE 18:46 → PHL 20:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5873 Piedmont	CAE 07:14	PHL 09:05	13%	4%	1.7%	no record
PT 6132 Piedmont	CAE 12:51	PHL 14:36	19%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 5862 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CAE 18:46	PHL 20:49	25%	10%	1.8%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON