Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: PT 6092 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day PT 6092 CHA 05:08 → CLT 06:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 6017 CHA 18:01 → CLT 19:18 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6092 Piedmont	CHA 05:08	CLT 06:43	11%	5%	2.0%	no record
PT 5850 Piedmont	CHA 06:26	CLT 07:43	16%	5%	2.0%	no record
PT 5961 Piedmont	CHA 10:52	CLT 12:09	23%	7%	2.1%	no record
PT 5960 Piedmont	CHA 08:56	CLT 10:12	24%	6%	2.0%	no record
AA 6004 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CHA 13:11	CLT 14:26	25%	7%	1.9%	91%worse than usual
PT 5962 Piedmont	CHA 14:45	CLT 16:02	25%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 5964 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CHA 19:50	CLT 21:07	29%	9%	2.7%	92%worse than usual
PT 6017 Piedmont	CHA 18:01	CLT 19:18	30%	9%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON