Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 5084 at 06:30, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 06:30	DCA 08:22	15%	8%	1.9%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 06:53 → ATL 07:53DL 3057	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:57 → DCA 12:43DL 1798	5h 50m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:10 → DTW 07:59DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 01m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 18m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:58 → ATL 09:58DL 3039	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	5h 58m	100%	75%
United Details →	CHA 05:53 → ORD 06:53UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 08:16 → DCA 11:20UA 1705	5h 27m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:07 → LGA 08:15DL 4890 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	LGA 11:20 → DCA 12:42DL 5749 · flown by Republic	6h 35m	95%	65%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:25 → ATL 15:25DL 3141	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 22m	98%	64%
Delta Details →	CHA 19:24 → ATL 20:27DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 28m	78%	58%
American Details →	CHA 19:50 → CLT 21:07AA 5964 · flown by Piedmont	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → DCA 00:27 +1AA 1269	4h 37m	94%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHA 16:16 → LGA 18:21DL 4675 · flown by Endeavor	54m New York	LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59DL 5724 · flown by Republic	4h 43m	32%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON