Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: DL 4890 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 54%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4890 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 06:07	LGA 08:15	19%	7%	3.3%	87%
DL 4675 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 16:16	LGA 18:21	54%	31%	8.3%	76%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 06:53 → ATL 07:53DL 3057	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 49m	98%	75%
American Details →	CHA 06:30 → DCA 08:22AA 5084 · flown by PSA	50m Washington	DCA 09:12 → LGA 10:47AA 4491 · flown by Republic	4h 17m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:10 → DTW 07:59DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	5h 40m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:58 → ATL 09:58DL 3039	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	5h 52m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	CHA 09:51 → ATL 10:54DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	5h 59m	95%	64%
United Details →	CHA 05:53 → ORD 06:53UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 08:00 → LGA 11:17UA 2092	5h 24m	89%	59%
American Details →	CHA 07:36 → DFW 09:07AA 426	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:57 → LGA 15:39AA 2922	8h 03m	94%	56%
United Details →	CHA 07:00 → IAH 08:23UA 5086 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Houston	IAH 09:47 → LGA 14:29UA 678	7h 29m	84%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHA 19:24 → ATL 20:27DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:28 → LGA 23:34DL 520	4h 10m	69%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON