Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2888 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2888 MDW 07:07 → HOU 09:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3135 ORD 14:57 → IAH 17:50 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2888 Southwest	MDW 07:07	HOU 09:44	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 1172 United	ORD 05:24	IAH 08:11	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 2228 United	ORD 06:17	IAH 09:05	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 1231 United Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:36	16%	6%	1.0%	91%
WN 2889 Southwest	MDW 09:39	HOU 12:25	19%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	23%	8%	0.9%	80%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 22:04	IAH 00:54	23%	13%	0.8%	76%
WN 799 Southwest	MDW 11:49	HOU 14:35	26%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:40	27%	12%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
WN 4058 Southwest	MDW 21:29	HOU 00:11	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	ORD 07:17	IAH 10:06	28%	7%	1.4%	75%
WN 2892 Southwest	MDW 18:04	HOU 20:48	29%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 2891 Southwest	MDW 15:44	HOU 18:31	29%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	30%	15%	1.4%	74%
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	30%	15%	1.3%	56%
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:34	IAH 13:15	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 11:05	IAH 14:04	33%	11%	1.7%	86%worse than usual
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 14:29	IAH 17:27	36%	18%	2.1%	76%worse than usual
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:07	IAH 23:51	38%	17%	1.3%	53%
UA 1921 United	ORD 17:47	IAH 20:34	39%	17%	1.6%	no record
AA 2708 American	ORD 17:17	IAH 20:17	40%	19%	2.4%	no record
AA 3039 American	ORD 13:57	IAH 16:54	41%	20%	3.8%	no record
UA 8188 United	ORD 18:27	IAH 21:12	42%	18%	1.8%	no record
AA 2416 American	ORD 15:20	IAH 18:18	44%	20%	3.6%	no record
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 14:57	IAH 17:50	45%	24%	5.9%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON