Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 26 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2984 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2984 ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 864 ORD 15:02 → FLL 19:08 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2984 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	MIA 09:09	8%	2%	1.3%	94%
AA 1252 American	ORD 05:39	MIA 09:48	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	17%	6%	1.1%	91%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	ORD 06:17	MIA 10:08	17%	3%	1.2%	96%worse than usual
UA 1358 United Flight history →	ORD 07:37	MIA 11:47	17%	5%	1.2%	85%
AA 1875 American Flight history →	ORD 07:07	MIA 11:19	17%	4%	1.5%	88%
WN 2119 Southwest	MDW 08:04	MIA 12:09	18%	4%	1.5%	no record
WN 1411 Southwest	MDW 08:49	FLL 12:49	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 06:03	FLL 10:09	26%	7%	2.3%	89%worse than usual
AA 1461 American	ORD 08:04	FLL 12:26	27%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1250 American Flight history →	ORD 08:54	MIA 13:08	28%	6%	1.4%	75%
UA 1620 United Flight history →	ORD 09:23	MIA 13:38	29%	8%	1.7%	77%
WN 544 Southwest	MDW 19:39	FLL 23:39	32%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 2689 American	ORD 10:06	MIA 14:22	33%	9%	2.4%	no record
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	33%	11%	1.7%	76%
WN 1487 Southwest	MDW 12:58	FLL 16:55	35%	11%	1.5%	no record
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:24	FLL 11:34	35%	9%	2.1%	68%
AA 1159 American	ORD 19:26	MIA 23:38	37%	11%	2.8%	no record
AA 2881 American Flight history →	ORD 17:01	FLL 21:28	41%	19%	2.6%	62%
AA 2020 American	ORD 19:11	FLL 23:16	42%	14%	2.0%	no record
AA 2553 American	ORD 16:28	MIA 20:37	42%	13%	2.9%	no record
AA 2323 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	MIA 22:00	43%	16%	3.2%	61%
UA 463 United	ORD 18:04	FLL 22:15	44%	20%	2.2%	no record
AA 791 American Flight history →	ORD 14:33	MIA 18:34	48%	16%	2.6%	87%worse than usual
UA 1294 United	ORD 13:31	FLL 17:33	49%	20%	2.3%	no record
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 15:02	FLL 19:08	58%	23%	4.9%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON