Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 3055 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3055 CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 3179 CHS 18:50 → ATL 20:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3055 Delta Flight history →	CHS 05:10	ATL 06:17	5%	2%	1.1%	97%
DL 2124 Delta Flight history →	CHS 06:15	ATL 07:25	7%	2%	1.2%	93%
DL 789 Delta Flight history →	CHS 07:45	ATL 09:14	9%	3%	1.2%	98%
DL 5475 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 09:29	ATL 10:53	11%	4%	2.6%	96%
DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	CHS 11:18	ATL 12:27	11%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	CHS 13:05	ATL 14:20	15%	4%	1.1%	91%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	CHS 14:04	ATL 15:25	15%	4%	1.0%	84%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	CHS 16:05	ATL 17:26	19%	6%	1.0%	85%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	CHS 17:30	ATL 18:51	19%	7%	1.0%	84%
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	CHS 18:50	ATL 20:11	20%	6%	1.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON