Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2773 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2773 CHS 05:52 → DCA 07:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5568 CHS 16:26 → DCA 17:55 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2773 American	CHS 05:52	DCA 07:32	8%	4%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3891 Envoy	CHS 11:30	DCA 13:12	15%	5%	2.2%	no record
AA 5607 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 14:13	DCA 15:55	25%	12%	2.9%	85%
YX 4651 Republic	CHS 19:31	DCA 21:15	28%	10%	3.6%	no record
AA 5568 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 16:26	DCA 17:55	34%	15%	4.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON