Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 662 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 662 CHS 08:23 → DEN 10:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 482 CHS 16:49 → DEN 18:38 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 662 United	CHS 08:23	DEN 10:34	10%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 557 United Flight history →	CHS 16:13	DEN 18:16	34%	10%	1.0%	74%
WN 482 Southwest	CHS 16:49	DEN 18:38	40%	10%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	5h 40m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:30 → ATL 18:51DL 2174	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:56 → DEN 21:08DL 746	5h 38m	82%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON