Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5092 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 5092 CHS 07:23 → DTW 09:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 3016 CHS 18:41 → DTW 20:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5092 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 07:23	DTW 09:27	7%	3%	2.6%	88%
9E 4964 Endeavor	CHS 13:00	DTW 15:04	14%	4%	2.1%	no record
DL 3016 Delta	CHS 18:41	DTW 20:45	21%	13%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON