tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: MX 404 at 16:57 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MX 404 Breeze CHS 16:57 FLL 18:44 33% 9% 5.7% no record
B6 1131 JetBlue Flight history → CHS 19:24 FLL 21:14 43% 21% 2.9% 71%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59DL 1094 4h 49m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 7h 05m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → CHS 07:45 → ATL 09:14DL 789 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → FLL 14:58DL 1341 7h 13m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:29 → ATL 10:53DL 5475 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 6h 12m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → CHS 06:52 → CLT 07:59AA 3298 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:09 → FLL 13:21AA 1484 6h 29m 92% 72%
DeltaDetails → CHS 17:30 → ATL 18:51DL 2174 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 09m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → CHS 16:05 → ATL 17:26DL 1381 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489 5h 51m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:57 → EWR 08:57UA 1289 1h 16m Newark EWR 10:13 → FLL 13:07UA 1998 6h 10m 96% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CHS 06:52 → CLT 07:59AA 3298 52m Charlotte CLT 08:51 → FLL 10:54AA 2585 4h 02m 74% 57%
JetBlueDetails → CHS 14:59 → BOS 17:21B6 68 52m Boston BOS 18:13 → FLL 21:41B6 369 6h 42m 56% 25%
UnitedDetails → CHS 15:03 → EWR 17:01UA 2693 51m Newark EWR 17:52 → FLL 20:52UA 2096 5h 49m 42% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON