Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3413 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day YX 3413 CHS 06:00 → IAD 07:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3418 CHS 19:55 → IAD 21:51 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3413 Republic	CHS 06:00	IAD 07:51	7%	2%	1.8%	no record
UA 1858 United Flight history →	CHS 10:00	IAD 11:37	11%	3%	1.4%	93%
UA 1019 United	CHS 14:56	IAD 16:47	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
YX 3418 Republic	CHS 19:55	IAD 21:51	22%	5%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON