Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 1039 at 06:44, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1039 American Flight history →	CID 06:44	CLT 09:54	18%	5%	2.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:49 → MSP 07:48DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 08m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 36m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	CID 16:14 → MSP 17:28DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 30m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	CID 12:30 → MSP 13:39DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	5h 19m	89%	68%
American Details →	CID 10:41 → DFW 12:45AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → CLT 18:06AA 1698	6h 25m	100%	68%
American Details →	CID 06:20 → DFW 08:28AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:45 → CLT 13:29AA 2909	6h 09m	84%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON