Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, MQ 4019 at 18:25, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4019 Envoy	CID 18:25	PHX 20:02	22%	6%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:34 → MSP 07:48DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	8h 12m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 13m	96%	74%
American Details →	CID 05:54 → DFW 08:09AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:46 → PHX 11:29AA 2103	7h 35m	95%	70%
American Details →	CID 10:48 → DFW 13:07AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:23 → PHX 16:57AA 2619	8h 09m	100%	69%
American Details →	CID 06:45 → CLT 09:52AA 1039	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 13:23 → PHX 14:59AA 1044	10h 14m	93%	66%
United Details →	CID 08:50 → DEN 10:04UA 1500	3h 26m Denver	DEN 13:30 → PHX 14:38UA 631	7h 48m	95%	65%
Delta Details →	CID 12:05 → MSP 13:19DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 14:34 → PHX 15:48DL 2284	5h 43m	85%	63%
Delta Details →	CID 16:15 → MSP 17:29DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 19:19 → PHX 20:32DL 2297	6h 17m	90%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CID 05:54 → DFW 08:09AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	5h 35m	74%	53%
American Details →	CID 20:40 → ORD 21:55AA 3458 · flown by Envoy	56m Chicago	ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:57 +1AA 435	6h 17m	67%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON