Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5432 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5432 CLE 06:26 → DTW 07:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5353 CLE 19:39 → DTW 20:34 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5432 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CLE 06:26	DTW 07:21	8%	3%	1.2%	88%
9E 5431 Endeavor	CLE 08:27	DTW 09:22	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
9E 5327 Endeavor	CLE 10:23	DTW 11:18	10%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 5359 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CLE 14:17	DTW 15:12	15%	5%	1.2%	83%
9E 5409 Endeavor	CLE 15:58	DTW 16:54	18%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 5353 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CLE 19:39	DTW 20:34	30%	13%	2.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON