Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2636 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2636 CLE 08:58 → MCO 11:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2280 CLE 21:47 → MCO 00:21 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2636 United Flight history →	CLE 08:58	MCO 11:42	6%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1488 United Flight history →	CLE 11:28	MCO 14:13	11%	4%	1.0%	92%
F9 2668 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:00	MCO 08:31	14%	4%	1.1%	83%
F9 3916 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 13:50	MCO 16:31	28%	9%	1.5%	72%
WN 1206 Southwest	CLE 17:24	MCO 19:56	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 2280 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:47	MCO 00:21	30%	13%	1.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON