tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:26, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 451 American CLE 07:57 PHX 09:32 15% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 1225 Southwest CLE 18:39 PHX 19:58 30% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 30m Dulles IAD 08:45 → PHX 10:36UA 709 7h 36m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 43m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 44m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:26 → DTW 07:21DL 5432 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 6h 18m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:17 → ATL 08:10DL 2734 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 46m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 13m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:12 → IAH 08:25UA 1645 1h 37m Houston IAH 10:02 → PHX 10:54UA 1895 7h 42m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → CLE 07:04 → PHL 08:43AA 3302 2h 22m Philadelphia PHL 11:05 → PHX 13:09AA 478 9h 05m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:56 → EWR 17:30UA 1892 49m Newark EWR 18:19 → PHX 20:44UA 676 7h 48m 45% 25%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:58 → ORD 09:36UA 656 47m Chicago ORD 10:23 → PHX 12:20UA 2225 6h 22m 37% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON