tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, F9 1544 at 17:39, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 1544 Frontier Flight history → CLE 17:39 RSW 20:43 29% 11% 2.9% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 00m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 4h 53m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 30m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:17 → ATL 08:10DL 2734 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 54m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:50 → EWR 08:27UA 601 3h 54m Newark EWR 12:21 → RSW 15:36UA 1810 8h 46m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:26 → DTW 07:21DL 5432 · flown by Endeavor 1h 12m Detroit DTW 08:33 → RSW 11:35DL 2001 5h 09m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → CLE 11:08 → ATL 13:01DL 1500 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 5h 36m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:12 → IAH 08:25UA 1645 1h 01m Houston IAH 09:26 → RSW 13:03UA 494 6h 51m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:56 → EWR 17:30UA 1892 1h 16m Newark EWR 18:46 → RSW 21:59UA 2188 6h 03m 68% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON