tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1250 United CLE 08:58 SFO 11:31 9% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2817 United CLE 19:17 SFO 21:53 23% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 37m Dulles IAD 09:52 → SFO 12:45UA 1773 9h 45m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 45m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:17 → ATL 08:10DL 2734 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 16m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic 2h 04m Boston BOS 10:11 → SFO 13:45DL 860 10h 40m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 7h 35m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLE 08:06 → CLT 09:50AA 2021 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 11:53 → SFO 14:15AA 398 9h 09m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690 3h 15m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 9h 14m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 16:21 → ORD 16:59UA 2315 1h 22m Chicago ORD 18:21 → SFO 20:50UA 649 7h 29m 72% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON