tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1218 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1218 Southwest CLE 06:57 STL 07:46 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4976 Southwest CLE 16:49 STL 17:38 16% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → STL 13:03DL 566 5h 58m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 1h 58m Minneapolis MSP 09:02 → STL 10:39DL 1289 5h 39m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:17 → ATL 08:10DL 2734 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:09 → STL 11:00DL 1400 5h 43m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:26 → DTW 07:21DL 5432 · flown by Endeavor 1h 29m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 05m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 21m Chicago ORD 10:57 → STL 12:29UA 1044 6h 29m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → CLE 19:14 → ATL 21:08DL 1350 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 5h 39m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:50 → EWR 08:27UA 601 1h 30m Newark EWR 09:57 → STL 11:38UA 2311 5h 48m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → CLE 11:08 → ATL 13:01DL 1500 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → STL 16:06DL 543 5h 58m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 1h 02m Chicago ORD 19:46 → STL 21:08UA 1625 4h 03m 58% 39%
AmericanDetails → CLE 17:45 → ORD 18:32AA 3454 · flown by Envoy 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:35 → STL 20:58AA 2444 4h 13m 58% 34%
UnitedDetails → CLE 16:21 → ORD 16:59UA 2315 53m Chicago ORD 17:52 → STL 18:48UA 4518 · flown by GoJet 3h 27m 42% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON