Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 818 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 818 CLT 09:06 → AUS 11:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 434 CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 818 American Flight history →	CLT 09:06	AUS 11:13	16%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 1052 American	CLT 13:01	AUS 14:59	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 3070 American	CLT 14:46	AUS 16:45	27%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 841 American	CLT 19:18	AUS 21:26	29%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 434 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	AUS 22:17	35%	11%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON