Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: PT 5960 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day PT 5960 CLT 07:24 → CHA 08:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5962 CLT 13:22 → CHA 14:32 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5960 Piedmont	CLT 07:24	CHA 08:29	18%	3%	1.2%	no record
PT 5961 Piedmont	CLT 09:04	CHA 10:18	23%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 6004 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 11:30	CHA 12:45	25%	4%	1.0%	91%worse than usual
PT 5874 Piedmont	CLT 22:43	CHA 23:57	27%	7%	1.9%	no record
PT 5875 Piedmont	CLT 20:24	CHA 21:38	29%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 5964 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 18:25	CHA 19:39	29%	9%	1.4%	97%worse than usual
PT 6017 Piedmont	CLT 16:25	CHA 17:29	30%	7%	1.3%	no record
PT 5962 Piedmont	CLT 13:22	CHA 14:32	32%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON