Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 1887 at 23:31, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1887 American Flight history →	CLT 23:31	CID 00:46	26%	8%	1.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 10:38 → CID 11:49DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	98%	86%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest	9h 21m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	CLT 19:14 → MSP 21:00DL 2820	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 22:14 → CID 23:25DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	5h 11m	82%	67%
American Details →	CLT 13:10 → ORD 14:21AA 2530	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 18:16 → CID 19:25AA 3458 · flown by Envoy	7h 15m	97%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 16:39 → PHX 18:16AA 3046	59m Phoenix	PHX 19:15 → CID 00:38 +1AA 4195 · flown by Envoy	8h 59m	67%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON