Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1405 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 1405 CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 419 CLT 22:05 → DTW 23:52 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1405 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:00	DTW 07:42	5%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 8861 Delta	CLT 01:25	DTW 03:08	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1639 Delta Flight history →	CLT 09:42	DTW 11:30	10%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	CLT 07:31	DTW 09:14	12%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	CLT 13:17	DTW 15:00	14%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	CLT 11:24	DTW 13:08	16%	5%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
DL 1675 Delta	CLT 17:27	DTW 19:09	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 9918 SkyWest	CLT 13:20	DTW 15:14	20%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1897 American	CLT 14:37	DTW 16:32	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1443 American	CLT 17:22	DTW 19:08	29%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 2988 American	CLT 22:52	DTW 00:48	30%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 419 American Flight history →	CLT 22:05	DTW 23:52	35%	13%	1.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON