Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YV 3984 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day YV 3984 CLT 06:54 → IAH 08:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1840 CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YV 3984 Mesa	CLT 06:54	IAH 08:52	15%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 2445 American Flight history →	CLT 07:59	IAH 09:46	19%	4%	1.1%	91%worse than usual
AA 2088 American	CLT 12:27	IAH 14:10	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	CLT 17:03	IAH 18:53	25%	11%	1.4%	80%
AA 2364 American	CLT 15:18	IAH 17:14	26%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 6236 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	CLT 15:04	IAH 16:39	27%	9%	1.2%	90%worse than usual
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 18:41	IAH 20:33	29%	11%	1.0%	62%
F9 2395 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:14	IAH 14:00	31%	11%	1.2%	62%
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	35%	11%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON