tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Jackson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 1h 36m Denver DEN 12:03 → JAC 13:35UA 2193 6h 55m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 14:05 → JAC 17:26AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 10h 29m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:50 → JAC 13:00AA 1883 9h 15m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:50 → ORD 08:03UA 1304 56m Chicago ORD 08:59 → JAC 11:09UA 2176 6h 19m 85% 61%
UnitedDetails → CLT 12:30 → ORD 13:45UA 3442 · flown by Republic 2h 31m Chicago ORD 16:16 → JAC 18:25UA 1987 7h 55m 89% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 52m Chicago ORD 09:54 → JAC 12:10AA 1898 6h 24m 62% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON