Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1226 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1226 Southwest	CLT 07:39	MDW 08:41	13%	3%	1.5%	no record
WN 2145 Southwest	CLT 19:44	MDW 20:41	33%	8%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	54m Detroit	DTW 08:36 → MDW 09:00DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 00m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 35m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 18:09 → MDW 18:33DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 16m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:47 → MDW 13:18DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 58m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CLT 11:53 → ATL 13:09DL 3190	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 22m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:40 → ATL 09:53DL 3156	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	4h 16m	91%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON