Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OH 5591 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day OH 5591 CLT 07:50 → MHT 10:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5033 CLT 20:33 → MHT 22:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5591 PSA	CLT 07:50	MHT 10:07	14%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 5661 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:11	MHT 13:29	18%	5%	1.3%	95%worse than usual
OH 5397 PSA	CLT 16:18	MHT 18:36	27%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 5033 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:33	MHT 22:51	30%	7%	1.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON