Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2287 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2287 CLT 08:20 → MSY 09:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2566 CLT 20:12 → MSY 21:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2287 American Flight history →	CLT 08:20	MSY 09:38	13%	3%	0.9%	91%
AA 1769 American	CLT 13:09	MSY 14:21	25%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	CLT 17:13	MSY 18:21	33%	9%	1.1%	79%worse than usual
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	MSY 23:59	34%	10%	1.0%	69%
AA 2566 American	CLT 20:12	MSY 21:20	35%	12%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON