Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1304 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 CLT 06:50 → ORD 08:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2423 CLT 15:01 → ORD 16:09 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	CLT 06:50	ORD 08:03	15%	6%	1.4%	85%
OO 5258 SkyWest	CLT 08:27	ORD 10:53	17%	7%	2.5%	no record
AA 2534 American	CLT 10:35	ORD 11:42	23%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 1038 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	ORD 12:13	24%	8%	1.9%	83%
AA 2843 American Flight history →	CLT 07:46	ORD 09:02	24%	6%	1.8%	86%
AA 627 American Flight history →	CLT 22:39	ORD 23:51	27%	11%	1.4%	61%
AA 815 American Flight history →	CLT 22:33	ORD 23:40	28%	11%	1.4%	55%
UA 3442 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 12:30	ORD 13:45	30%	12%	3.9%	74%
UA 3491 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:16	ORD 16:34	36%	13%	2.4%	95%worse than usual
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:16	ORD 17:39	36%	17%	2.4%	68%
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	36%	16%	1.9%	47%
AA 2530 American Flight history →	CLT 13:10	ORD 14:21	38%	15%	4.2%	67%
YX 3421 Republic	CLT 17:30	ORD 18:46	39%	15%	3.6%	no record
AA 2423 American	CLT 15:01	ORD 16:09	44%	14%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON