Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1838 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1838 CLT 05:50 → PHL 07:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest F9 1328 CLT 14:09 → PHL 16:00 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 05:50	PHL 07:38	10%	4%	1.4%	70%
AA 3325 American	CLT 07:56	PHL 09:50	14%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2565 American	CLT 09:45	PHL 11:33	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 1384 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 08:44	PHL 10:33	19%	7%	1.9%	70%
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	21%	6%	1.2%	79%
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 14:02	PHL 15:50	26%	7%	1.2%	76%
AA 864 American Flight history →	CLT 15:02	PHL 16:49	29%	9%	1.1%	70%
AA 1827 American	CLT 22:25	PHL 00:13	31%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 423 American Flight history →	CLT 18:13	PHL 19:55	34%	13%	1.1%	66%
DL 8845 Delta	CLT 17:45	PHL 19:18	37%	10%	1.2%	no record
F9 2388 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:42	PHL 22:31	39%	16%	2.3%	79%worse than usual
F9 1328 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 14:09	PHL 16:00	40%	16%	1.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON